New Command scenario: Operation Sling of David

December 8, 2013 · Posted in Command 

Database – DB3000
Author – Mladen Djekic (rytech)

Israel vs. Iran
Date/Time: 5 June, 2014 / 20:00:00 Zulu
Location: Middle East

Playable Sides: Israel

Background

Since the disclosure of the existence of previously-secret nuclear facilities in the Islamic Republic of Iran by opposition groups in 2004, the Middle East has remained under the spectre of a strike by Western forces upon the Iranian nuclear program to stop its putative nuclear weapons development, either by US/NATO forces or by Israel itself. Successive Israeli governments, frightened by the explicitly-stated intentions of Iranian leaders to bring about the destruction of the Jewish state, have repeatedly expressed their willingness to launch military strikes, regardless of the threat of region-wide war that could ensue.

Scenario Notes

This is a one sided aerial warfare-oriented scenario designed to be played from the Israeli side. Target aimpoints, weapon allocations, and orders of battle have been taken from open-source publications of studies by think-tanks that have considered the real-life possibility of this very scenario.

Orders for Cmdr Israeli Forces

Situation – General

It has been six months since the signing of the Geneva interim agreement between the P-5+1 (the US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) and Iran. The agreement held out the potential, despite our heavy skepticism, that a final accord could be reached ensuring the complete and verifiable non-usability of the Iranian nuclear program for nuclear weapons development, in exchange from sanctions relief from Western nations and the United Nations.

Unfortunately, as we expected, the talks did not ultimately come to a fruition. Through the Foreign Ministry’s consultations with our Western allies, we had known that the talks were not going well, and that there was little chance of an accord. Heavy Congressional pressure on the US delegation to take a hard line against the Iranians, backed by intense lobbying of the part of the Israeli Government and Gulf Arab states, have enraged the Iranians, who have stated that "international Zionism and its American enablers continue to attempt to violate the sacred and inalienable rights of the great Iranian nation."

Two weeks ago, the Iranians pulled out of the talks and repudiated the Geneva Interim Accord, claiming that no agreement was possible that would not violate the "red line" of Iran’s advanced nuclear enrichment program. Despite the repeated warnings of the Israeli and US governments, Russia, China, and many other nations (including much of the European Union) see US and Israeli intransigence as a cause of the collapse of the negotiations – as a result, the Foreign Ministry largely expects the collapse of much of the sanctions regime against Iran soon.

In the last 72 hours, the Iranian government has publicly announced its decision to resume full-scale nuclear enrichment – apparently they believe that with the United States’ "retreat" from the Middle East, that they can do so without expecting the re-imposition of sanctions or a military strike. They believe that the international pressure being brought upon the State of Israel to not carry out an attack will foreclose any Israeli military option.

As well, we have received intelligence from multiple sources that the Iranians soon plan to insert "hot" nuclear fuel rods and heavy water into the Arak nuclear reactor – an act that would render a potential military strike moot. If the reactor were to be struck whilst loaded with nuclear fuel, it would almost certainly cause a catastrophic nuclear meltdown and release of radioactivity on the scale of Chernobyl or worse – a prospect that would be politically devastating for Israel.

In the wake of this information, the Cabinet, roughly 36 hours ago, authorized the execution of Operation Sling of David – the designated plan for a full-scale aerial attack upon critical infrastructure nodes of the Iranian nuclear program.

Enemy Forces

Current intelligence indicates that Iran’s integrated air defence system, whilst mostly outdated and consisting of 70’s/80’s-era platforms, is by no means negligible in capability. Expect significant numbers of AAA and SAM systems, mostly SA-2s, 3s, and 6s, but also including several long-range SA-5 batteries. As of yet, we do not believe that Iran has managed to obtain SA-10 systems.

Iran’s fighter aircraft are a mix of Western and Soviet-bloc/Chinese platforms, including F-4s, F-5s, F-14s, and Mirage IIIs and Vs – however, Iran’s fighter force is widely believed to be hampered by lack of maintenance/spare parts and low numbers of flying hours.

Mission

Using the available forces, you will launch a long-range strike into Iranian territory in order to destroy indicated aimpoints at critical infrastructure targets of the Iranian nuclear program. You will have only 12 hours to ingress, strike, and egress from the target points, as your forces will be tasked with offensive operations against Hezbollah forces in Lebanon soon afterwards – meaning you will only have one shot at the targets.

Available Forces

You have available to you three squadrons of F-15Is and F-16Is for strike and air defence suppression, plus two squadrons of F-15C/D for top cover, as well as the IAF’s force of aerial refueling tankers and early warning aircraft.

Execution

There are 4 specified facilities to be attacked, as referenced on your tactical map. Each has multiple aimpoints (marked with a [TARGET] identifier):

(1) the Natanz uranium enrichment facility. This facility is the most crucial node in Iran’s nuclear program, since it is home to the vast majority of Iran’s 19,000 centrifuges, and hence is its most well defended. There are two main target sets here:

(i) the two underground centrifuge halls. These are buried under 20 feet of earth and reinforced with another 8 feet of steel-reinforced concrete. 12 F-15Is will be needed to destroy both halls, with 3 aimpoints per hall spaced out to ensure maximum sufficient area overpressure coverage and 4 GBU-28s per aimpoint to ensure penetration and complete destruction of the centrifuges below.

(ii) the above-ground uranium separation pilot plant. 6 aimpoints, with 2 Griffin LGBs per aimpoint.

(2) the Arak heavy water reactor. This reactor and its attached facility possesses the ability to produce plutonium suitable for reprocessing into nuclear weapons material. 6 aimpoints: the reactor, two pairs of cooling towers, and 3 aimpoints at the heavy water production facility. 2 Griffins LGBs per.

(3) the Fordow uranium enrichment facility. This facility is too-deeply buried to be damaged with any of the weapons in the Israeli arsenal – hence this strike focuses on secondary targets. 7x aimpoints – the 6 tunnel entrances to the centrifuge halls and the electrical sub-station providing power to the on-site centrifuges. 2 Griffins per.

(4) the Esfahan uranium conversion facility. This facility converts mined yellowcake (uranium ore) into uranium hexafluoride (UF6) suitable for enrichment in the centrifuges. Three aimpoints, with 2x Griffins per.

The Cabinet has authorized three main routes for your strike force, at your discretion:

Northern: flying north over the Mediterranean, then east along the Syrian-Turkish-Iraqi border before coming down over the north. This route offers the possibility of refueling in international waters over the Mediterranean, but will likely offer the Iranians the earliest warning. Due to the current civil war brewing there, Syria’s air defence capability is assessed as significantly degraded, and your flightplan takes you over rebel rather than government-held areas.

Central: flying east along the Syrian-Jordanian border, then straight across Iraq to the target area. This route is the most direct of the three, but also carries with it the uncertainty of flying over hostile Syrian territory.

Southern: along the Jordanian-Saudi border, thence across Iraq to the targets. Quiet indirect diplomacy with representatives of the Saudi royal family has secured us a route unmolested through Saudi territory, staged during a gap in radar coverage of the Saudi IADS to ensure Saudi deniability about foreknowledge of the strike. This route is the longest, but offers the possibility of refueling ops free of potential interruptions.

You are strongly urged to conduct your attacks from a high level to avoid AAA concentrations, as well as give your bombs enough kinetic energy to penetrate their targets;

You are NOT authorized to cross Turkish, Egyptian, or Jordanian airspace, as we will have enough diplomatic problems as it is without angering our putative allied countries further – even if you are successful.

This strike represents the most daring assault Israel has ever attempted – even more so than the attack to open the Six-Day War of 1967 that, coincidentally, was staged 67 years ago today. On your hands rests the continued future of the Jewish state and the Jewish people. Good luck.

Command & Signal

Command: “The Pit”, IDF Emergency Command Bunker, Israeli Ministry of Defence
Signals: EMCON B, Limited emissions

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